Market Commentary
16 March 2026|Origen Capital
Dalio's Hormuz Piece Has a Gap. His Family Office Branch Forwarding Address Fills It.
His central proposition — that the strait is a binary test of American imperial capacity, and that losing it triggers the same capital flight dynamic that ended British, Dutch, and Spanish dominance in their respective final chapters. Dalio has opened a branch office of his family office in Abu Dhabi and has been spending an increasing amount of time there. He is, by any reasonable measure, one of the most careful students of where capital moves in periods of structural transition. An analyst of that precision does not plant a flag in a city and then fail to notice its role in his own framework. The silence is deliberate. My purpose here is to say what the piece does not.
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